Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.

Comparing poverty and deprivation dynamics:Issues of reliability and validity

In this paper we seek to establish if earlier findings relating to the relationship between income poverty persistence and deprivation persistence could be due to a failure to take measurement error into account. To address this question, we apply a model of dynamics incorporating structural and error components. Our analysis shows a general similarity between latent poverty and deprivation dynamics. In both cases we substantially over-estimate the probability of exiting from poverty or deprivation. We observe a striking similarity across dimensions for both observed and latent outcomes. In both cases levels of poverty and deprivation persistence are higher for the latent case. However, there is no evidence that earlier results relating to the differences in the determinants of poverty and deprivation persistence are a consequence of differential patterns of reliability. Taking measurement error into account seems more likely to accentuate rather than diminish the contrasts highlighted by earlier research. Since longitudinal differences relating to poverty and deprivation cannot be accounted for by measurement error, it seems that we must accept that we are confronted with issues relating to validity rather than reliability. Even where we measure these dimensions over reasonable periods of time and allow for measurement error, they continue to tap relatively distinct phenomenon. Thus, if measures of persistent poverty are to constitute an important component of EU social indicators, a strong case can be made for including parallel measures of deprivation persistence and continuing to explore the relationship between them. © Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.

Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis

Energy efficiency improvement has been a key objective of China’s long-term energy policy. In this paper, we derive single-factor technical energy efficiency (abbreviated as energy efficiency) in China from multi-factor efficiency estimated by means of a translog production function and a stochastic frontier model on the basis of panel data on 29 Chinese provinces over the period 2003–2011. We find that average energy efficiency has been increasing over the research period and that the provinces with the highest energy efficiency are at the east coast and the ones with the lowest in the west, with an intermediate corridor in between. In the analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency by means of a spatial Durbin error model both factors in the own province and in first-order neighboring provinces are considered. Per capita income in the own province has a positive effect. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and population density in the own province and in neighboring provinces have positive effects, whereas the share of state-owned enterprises in Gross Provincial Product in the own province and in neighboring provinces has negative effects. From the analysis it follows that inflow of foreign direct investment and reform of state-owned enterprises are important policy handles.

Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using words as Data

We present a new way of extracting policy positions from political texts that treats texts not as discourses to be understood and interpreted but rather, as data in the form of words. We compare this approach to previous methods of text analysis and use it to replicate published estimates of the policy positions of political parties in Britain and Ireland, on both economic and social policy dimensions. We “export” the method to a non-English-language environment, analyzing the policy positions of German parties, including the PDS as it entered the former West German party system. Finally, we extend its application beyond the analysis of party manifestos, to the estimation of political positions from legislative speeches. Our “language-blind” word scoring technique successfully replicates published policy estimates without the substantial costs of time and labor that these require. Furthermore, unlike in any previous method for extracting policy positions from political texts, we provide uncertainty measures for our estimates, allowing analysts to make informed judgments of the extent to which differences between two estimated policy positions can be viewed as significant or merely as products of measurement error.

A Debriefing Session with a Nutritionist Can Improve Dietary Assessment Using Food Diaries.

The objective of the current study was to evaluate the effect of a debriefing call on nutrient intake estimates using two 3-d food diaries among women participating in the Women's Health and Interview Study (WISH) Diet Validation Study. Subjects were 207 women with complete data and six 24-h recalls (24-HR) by telephone over 8 mo followed by two 3-d food diaries during the next 4 mo. Nutrient intake was assessed using the food diaries before and after a debriefing session by telephone. The purpose of the debriefing call was to obtain more detailed information on the types and amounts of fat in the diet. However, due to the ubiquitous nature of fat in the diet, the debriefing involved providing more specific detail on many aspects of the diet. There was a significant difference in macronutrient and micronutrient intake estimates after the debriefing. Estimates of protein, carbohydrate, and fiber intake were significantly higher and total fat, monounsaturated fat, saturated fat, vitamin A, vitamin C, -tocopherol, folic acid, and calcium intake were significantly lower after the debriefing (P <0.05). The limits of agreement between the food diaries before and after the debriefing were especially large for total fat intake, which could be under- or overestimated by 15 g/d. The debriefing call improved attenuation coefficients associated with measurement error for vitamin C, folic acid, iron, tocopherol, vitamin A, and calcium estimates. A hypothetical relative risk (RR) = 2.0 could be attenuated to 1.16 for folic acid intake assessed without a debriefing but to only 1.61 with a debriefing. Depending on the nutrients of interest, the inclusion of a debriefing can reduce the potential attenuation of RR in studies evaluating diet disease associations.

Social Class Variation in Risk: A Comparative Analysis of the Dynamics of Economic Vulnerability

A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis.

Agreement between self-report and medical records on signs and symptoms of respiratory illness

Background: Information on patient symptoms can be obtained by patient self-report or medical records review. Both methods have limitations. Aims: To assess the agreement between self-report and documentation in the medical records of signs/symptoms of respiratory illness (fever, cough, runny nose, sore throat, headache, sinus problems, muscle aches, fatigue, earache, and chills). Methods: Respondents were 176 research participants in the Hutterite Influenza Prevention Study during the 2008-2009 influenza season with information about the presence or absence of signs/symptoms from both self-report and primary care medical records. Results: Compared with medical records, lower proportions of self-reported fever, sore throat, earache, cough, and sinus problems were found. Total agreements between self-report and medical report of symptoms ranged from 61% (for sore throat) to 88% (for muscle aches and earache), with kappa estimates varying from 0.05 (for chills) to 0.41 (for cough) and 0.51 (for earache). Negative agreement was considerably higher (from 68% for sore throat to 93% for muscle aches and earache) than positive agreement (from 13% for chills to 58% for earache) for each symptom except cough where positive agreement (77%) was higher than negative agreement (64%). Agreements varied by age group. We found better agreement for earache (kappa=0.62) and lower agreements for headache, sinus problems, muscle aches, fatigue, and chills in older children (aged =5 years) and adults. Conclusions: Agreements were variable depending on the specific symptom. Contrary to research in other patient populations which suggests that clinicians report fewer symptoms than patients, we found that the medical record captured more symptoms than selfreport. Symptom agreement and disagreement may be affected by the perspectives of the person experiencing them, the observer, the symptoms themselves, measurement error, the setting in which the symptoms were observed and recorded, and the broader community and cultural context of patients. © 2012 Primary Care Respiratory Society UK. All rights reserved.

Assessing reproducibility of data obtained with instruments based on continuous measurements

Data obtained with any research tool must be reproducible, a concept referred to as reliability. Three techniques are often used to evaluate reliability of tools using continuous data in aging research: intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Pearson correlations, and paired t tests. These are often construed as equivalent when applied to reliability. This is not correct, and may lead researchers to select instruments based on statistics that may not reflect actual reliability. The purpose of this paper is to compare the reliability estimates produced by these three techniques and determine the preferable technique. A hypothetical dataset was produced to evaluate the reliability estimates obtained with ICC, Pearson correlations, and paired t tests in three different situations. For each situation two sets of 20 observations were created to simulate an intrarater or inter-rater paradigm, based on 20 participants with two observations per participant. Situations were designed to demonstrate good agreement, systematic bias, or substantial random measurement error. In the situation demonstrating good agreement, all three techniques supported the conclusion that the data were reliable. In the situation demonstrating systematic bias, the ICC and t test suggested the data were not reliable, whereas the Pearson correlation suggested high reliability despite the systematic discrepancy. In the situation representing substantial random measurement error where low reliability was expected, the ICC and Pearson coefficient accurately illustrated this. The t test suggested the data were reliable. The ICC is the preferred technique to measure reliability. Although there are some limitations associated with the use of this technique, they can be overcome.

Simulation or measurement: the effect of radio map creation on indoor WLAN-based localisation accuracy

Indoor wireless network based client localisation requires the use of a radio map to relate received signal strength to specific locations. However, signal strength measurements are time consuming, expensive and usually require unrestricted access to all parts of the building concerned. An obvious option for circumventing this difficulty is to estimate the radio map using a propagation model. This paper compares the effect of measured and simulated radio maps on the accuracy of two different methods of wireless network based localisation. The results presented indicate that, although the propagation model used underestimated the signal strength by up to 15 dB at certain locations, there was not a signigicant reduction in localisation performance. In general, the difference in performance between the simulated and measured radio maps was around a 30 % increase in rms error

Developing a conceptual model of lead performance measurement and benchmarking: A multiple case analysis

Purpose: Environmental turbulence including rapid changes in technology and markets has resulted in the need for new approaches to performance measurement and benchmarking. There is a need for studies that attempt to measure and benchmark upstream, leading or developmental aspects of organizations. Therefore, the aim of this paper is twofold. The first is to conduct an in-depth case analysis of lead performance measurement and benchmarking leading to the further development of a conceptual model derived from the extant literature and initial survey data. The second is to outline future research agendas that could further develop the framework and the subject area.

Design/methodology/approach: A multiple case analysis involving repeated in-depth interviews with managers in organisational areas of upstream influence in the case organisations.

Findings: It was found that the effect of external drivers for lead performance measurement and benchmarking was mediated by organisational context factors such as level of progression in business improvement methods. Moreover, the legitimation of the business improvement methods used for this purpose, although typical, had been extended beyond their original purpose with the development of bespoke sets of lead measures.

Practical implications: Examples of methods and lead measures are given that can be used by organizations in developing a programme of lead performance measurement and benchmarking.

Originality/value: There is a paucity of in-depth studies relating to the theory and practice of lead performance measurement and benchmarking in organisations.